The Prediction Markets

Welterweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Islam Makhachev 64%

Next is Carlos Prates at 38%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Islam Makhachev
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Islam Makhachev
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Kalshi
Carlos Prates
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Prates
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ilia Topuria
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Morales
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Morales
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian Machado Garry
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ian Machado Garry
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Jack Della Maddalena
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack Della Maddalena
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamaru Usman
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamaru Usman
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Leon Edwards
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leon Edwards
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Belal Muhammad
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belal Muhammad
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean Brady
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean Brady
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Shavkat Rakhmonov
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Islam Makhachev
  • Carlos Prates
  • Ilia Topuria

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Welterweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?". Islam Makhachev leads at 64%. Next is Carlos Prates at 38%. $7K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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