The Prediction Markets

What chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
27 min ago
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What the markets expect

Ethereum 45%

Next is Base at 43.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 27 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ethereum
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ethereum
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Base
43.1%
Polymarket 43.1%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 85.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $117 (1.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Base
Last price
43.1%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
85.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$117 (1.17x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
Own Chain
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Own Chain
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
Multichain
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Multichain
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Solana
29.6%
Polymarket 29.6%polled, 27 min agoBest Yes 58.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $170 (1.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Solana
Last price
29.6%
As of
Polled 27 min ago
Buy Yes
58.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$170 (1.70x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ethereum
  • Base
  • Own Chain

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?". Ethereum leads at 45%. Next is Base at 43.1%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

NYSE has announced plans to launch a tokenized securities platform. More details can be found here: https://x.com/NYSE/status/2013263835549819097 This market will resolve to the blockchain that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) officially confirms it will use for the settlement of its tokenized securities platform. An official announcement, regulatory filing, or public statement from NYSE or ICE explicitly naming a blockchain will qualify for resolution and will trigger immediate resolution, regardless of whether additional blockchains are announced later. If multiple blockchains are officially confirmed at the time of the first qualifying announcement, this market will resolve to “Multichain.” If NYSE or ICE confirms the use of its own blockchain developed by or for NYSE/ICE—whether public or private, and whether developed independently or in partnership—this market will resolve to “Own Chain.” The primary resolution sources will be official announcements from NYSE or ICE, regulatory filings, or a broad consensus of credible reporting. If no blockchain is officially confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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