The Prediction Markets

What companies will Trump say in October?

Starts in 9 daysKickoff
Traded
$136K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Amazon / AMZN 99%

Next is AMD at 99%. The venues differ most on Caterpillar (Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 21%), a 28-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Amazon / AMZN
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Amazon / AMZN
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
AMD
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
AMD
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
CNN
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
CNN
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Dell
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Dell
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Google / GOOG / GOOGL
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Google / GOOG / GOOGL
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
IBM
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
IBM
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Intel / INTC
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Intel / INTC
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Micron / MU
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Micron / MU
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Microsoft / MSFT
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Microsoft / MSFT
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 32 more outcomes
Nvidia / NVDA
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia / NVDA
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paramount / PSKY
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Paramount / PSKY
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
SpaceX / SPCX
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX / SPCX
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tesla / TSLA
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Tesla / TSLA
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Uber
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Uber
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
X / Twitter
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
X / Twitter
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Deere
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deere
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
ChatGPT / OpenAI
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Qualcomm
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Qualcomm
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
Ferrari
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ferrari
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
Airbus
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Airbus
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Polymarket
Honda / HMC
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Honda / HMC
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Visa
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 84.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Visa
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84.5¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oracle
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oracle
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Polymarket
Chevron / CVX
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chevron / CVX
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Kalshi
BBC
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
BBC
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Kalshi
ExxonMobil / XOM
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
ExxonMobil / XOM
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Oracle / ORCL
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oracle / ORCL
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Caterpillar
37%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 38s agoKalshi 21%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caterpillar
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caterpillar
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

Discord
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Discord
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Polymarket
Turning Point
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turning Point
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hyperliquid
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $223 (2.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hyperliquid
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$223 (2.23x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
JPMorgan / JPM
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
JPMorgan / JPM
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
DoorDash / DASH
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
DoorDash / DASH
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Netflix / NFLX
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Netflix / NFLX
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
Mastercard / MA
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mastercard / MA
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Airbnb / ABNB
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Airbnb / ABNB
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Kalshi
Qualcomm / QCOM
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qualcomm / QCOM
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
BlackRock
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
BlackRock
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Kalshi
Verizon
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Verizon
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Rigetti / RGTI
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rigetti / RGTI
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$786
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Amazon / AMZN
  • AMD
  • CNN

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Amazon / AMZN for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What companies will Trump say in October?". Amazon / AMZN leads at 99%. Next is AMD at 99%. $136K has traded across 42 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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