The Prediction Markets

What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$230K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Peru 94%

Next is Uruguay at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Peru
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peru
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Uruguay
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uruguay
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Portugal
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brazil
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brazil
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
Philippines
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Philippines
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
South Sudan
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Sudan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
USA
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the country, Pope Leo XIV

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Peru
  • Uruguay
  • Argentina

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?". Peru leads at 94%. Next is Uruguay at 93%. $230K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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