The Prediction Markets

What countries will Trump say in October?

Starts in 3 daysKickoff
Traded
$337K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Argentina / Argentinian 99%

Next is Iceland / Icelandic at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Argentina / Argentinian
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina / Argentinian
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
86¢
Volume
$678
Trade this on Kalshi
Iceland / Icelandic
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Iceland / Icelandic
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
UAE / United Arab Emirates
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
UAE / United Arab Emirates
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
Australia / Australian
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Australia / Australian
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
Panama / Panamanian
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama / Panamanian
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba / Cuban
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba / Cuban
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Kalshi
Illness
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Illness
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Polymarket
Weave
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Weave
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Polymarket
Neurotic
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neurotic
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire / Uranium
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ceasefire / Uranium
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 31 more outcomes
Paraguay / Paraguayan
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paraguay / Paraguayan
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Kalshi
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kuwait / Kuwaiti
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Kalshi
Allah
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allah
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Dancing in the Street
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dancing in the Street
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Burnham
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Six Seven
35.9%
Polymarket 42%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
Ahmed al-Sharaa
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
Four More Years
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Four More Years
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bahrain / Bahraini
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bahrain / Bahraini
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Rutte
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Rutte
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Strategic / Strategy
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategic / Strategy
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Sudan / Sudanese
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sudan / Sudanese
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vanilla / Ice Cream
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanilla / Ice Cream
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula da Silva
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula da Silva
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Africa / South African
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Africa / South African
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Belgium / Belgian
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium / Belgian
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flying Car / Roadster
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flying Car / Roadster
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Hungary / Hungarian
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary / Hungarian
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamaica / Jamaican
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamaica / Jamaican
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Kalshi
Pope Leo XIV
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi Jinping
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Maria Corina Machado
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maria Corina Machado
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim Jong Un
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim Jong Un
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Masoud Pezeshkian
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Masoud Pezeshkian
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Reza Pahlavi
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yoon Suk Yeol
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoon Suk Yeol
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás Maduro
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Argentina / Argentinian
  • Iceland / Icelandic
  • UAE / United Arab Emirates

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Argentina / Argentinian for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What countries will Trump say in October?". Argentina / Argentinian leads at 99%. Next is Iceland / Icelandic at 99%. $337K has traded across 41 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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