The Prediction Markets

What countries will Trump visit before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Japan 16%

Next is Saudi Arabia at 14%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Japan
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Japan
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Saudi Arabia
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saudi Arabia
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Germany
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Norway
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
India
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
India
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
7.9%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 7 min agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Polymarket
North Korea
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
North Korea
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vatican City
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vatican City
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Venezuela
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denmark
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pakistan
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pakistan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Qatar
3.9%
Kalshi 3.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qatar
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Canada
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hungary
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hungary
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Palestine
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palestine
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Poland
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poland
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taiwan
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the country, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Japan
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Germany

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Japan for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What countries will Trump visit before 2027?". Japan leads at 16%. Next is Saudi Arabia at 14%. $1.0M has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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