The Prediction Markets

What flavors will JUUL relaunch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$74K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Mint 18.9%

Next is Mango at 14.8%. The venues differ most on Cucumber (Polymarket 50%, Kalshi 1%), a 49-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mint
18.9%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mint
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mint
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

Mango
14.8%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mango
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mango
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Cucumber
13.3%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cucumber
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cucumber
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Crème Brûlée
5.3%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crème Brûlée
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Crème Brûlée
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Cool Mint
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cool Mint
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fruit Medley
3.5%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fruit Medley
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fruit Medley
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Fruit Medley asks 2¢ on Kalshi and bids 3¢ on Polymarket (100 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Juul
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mint
  • Mango
  • Cucumber

Live prices for Mint

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What flavors will JUUL relaunch?". Mint leads at 18.9%. Next is Mango at 14.8%. $74K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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