The Prediction Markets

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$616K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Earbuds/Headphones 15.8%

Next is Clip-on device for clothing at 9.3%. The venues differ most on Earbuds/Headphones (Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 13-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Earbuds/Headphones
15.8%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Earbuds/Headphones
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Earbuds/Headphones
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Clip-on device for clothing
9.3%
Polymarket 12%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clip-on device for clothing
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clip-on device for clothing
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Glasses
7.9%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glasses
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Glasses
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tablet
6.8%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tablet
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tablet
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Computer (Laptop/Desktop)
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Computer (Laptop/Desktop)
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ring
4.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ring
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ring
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Watch
4.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Watch
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Watch
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Computer
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Computer
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phone
3.7%
Polymarket 4%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phone
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$62K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Phone
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Necklace
3.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Necklace
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Necklace
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Head-mounted display
2.3%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Head-mounted display
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Head-mounted display
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sam Altman, The New York Times, the Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Earbuds/Headphones
  • Clip-on device for clothing
  • Glasses

Live prices for Earbuds/Headphones

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?". Earbuds/Headphones leads at 15.8%. Next is Clip-on device for clothing at 9.3%. $616K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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