The Prediction Markets

What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Vance 95%

Next is Xavier at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Vance
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 5 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Vance
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavier
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
Winnie
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Winnie
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Kalshi
Yolanda
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yolanda
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Zeke
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zeke
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Lowell
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lowell
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Douglas
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Douglas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elida
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elida
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iselle
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iselle
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Julio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julio
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Norbert
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norbert
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vance
  • Xavier
  • Winnie

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year?". Vance leads at 95%. Next is Xavier at 92%. $41K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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