The Prediction Markets

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$11.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

80,000 65.5%

Next is 85,000 at 48.5%. The venues differ most on 67,500 (Polymarket 1.7%, Kalshi 4%), a 2.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 33 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
80,000
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Polymarket
85,000
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$385K
Trade this on Polymarket
77,500
32.9%
Polymarket 32.5%live, 5 h agoKalshi 34%live, 5 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
77,500
Price
32.5%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$600K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $77,500.00
Price
34%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

87,500
21.4%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
87,500
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$836K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $87,500.00
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$348K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

75,000
15.1%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$421K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75,000.00
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

90,000
10.2%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$538K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90,000.00
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$428K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

72,500
7.4%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,500
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$320K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72,500.00
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

92,500
4.7%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,500
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$506K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $92,500.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$366K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

70,000
3.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$275K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70,000.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

67,500
2.2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
67,500
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$301K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67,500.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 9 more outcomes
95,000
1.9%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$375K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $95,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$154K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

100,000
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$406K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $100,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

65,000
1.2%
Polymarket 1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$574K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65,000.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

97,500
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
97,500
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$285K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

102,500
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
102,500
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$329K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $102,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

62,500
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,500
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$625K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62,500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

105,000
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
105,000
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$618K
Trade this on Polymarket
60,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$562K
Trade this on Polymarket
150,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
150,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$626K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 80,000
  • 85,000
  • 77,500

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 80,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What price will Bitcoin hit in October?". 80,000 leads at 65.5%. Next is 85,000 at 48.5%. $11.8M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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