The Prediction Markets

What will Advance Auto Parts say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 3, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Headwind 92%

Next is Tariff at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Headwind
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Advance Reward
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Advance Reward
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Kalshi
ARGOS
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
ARGOS
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tailwind
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Good Part
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Good Part
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Kalshi
Same Store
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Same Store
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Zebra
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zebra
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Peak Driving
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peak Driving
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Worldpac
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Worldpac
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Palantir
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palantir
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Middle East
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Middle East
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Headwind
  • Tariff
  • Advance Reward

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Advance Auto Parts say during their next earnings call?". Headwind leads at 92%. Next is Tariff at 83%. $3K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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