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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Trainium 96%
Next is Bedrock at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Trainium96%96%89¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 22s ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Trainium96%Kalshi 96%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Trainium
96%
96%
89¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Trainium
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trainium
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $5K
Bedrock95%95%95¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 22s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Bedrock95%Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Bedrock
95%
95%
95¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Bedrock
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bedrock
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $1K
Tariff95%95%94¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 22s ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Tariff95%Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Tariff
95%
95%
94¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Tariff
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tariff
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $3K
Alexa+ / Alexa Plus89%89%85¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 22s ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Alexa+ / Alexa Plus89%Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Alexa+ / Alexa Plus
89%
89%
85¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Alexa+ / Alexa Plus
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexa+ / Alexa Plus
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $4K
Graviton89%89%89¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 22s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Graviton89%Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Graviton
89%
89%
89¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Graviton
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Graviton
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $5K
Prime Day89%89%87¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 22s ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Prime Day89%Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Prime Day
89%
89%
87¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Prime Day
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Prime Day
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $2K
Anthropic / Claude87%87%86¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 22s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Anthropic / Claude87%Kalshi 87%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Anthropic / Claude
87%
87%
86¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Anthropic / Claude
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthropic / Claude
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $6K
Live Sports82%82%82¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 22s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Live Sports82%Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Live Sports
82%
82%
82¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Live Sports
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Live Sports
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $4K
Robotic / Robotics82%82%81¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 22s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Robotic / Robotics82%Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Robotic / Robotics
82%
82%
81¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Robotic / Robotics
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Robotic / Robotics
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $5K
OpenAI77%77%77¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 22s ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)OpenAI77%Kalshi 77%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
OpenAI
77%
77%
77¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
OpenAI
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- OpenAI
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
Supply Chain77%77%75¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 22s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Supply Chain77%Kalshi 77%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Supply Chain
77%
77%
75¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Supply Chain
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Supply Chain
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $310
Gen AI / Generative AI73%73%73¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 22s ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Gen AI / Generative AI73%Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Gen AI / Generative AI
73%
73%
73¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Gen AI / Generative AI
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gen AI / Generative AI
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $6K
NVIDIA73%73%73¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 22s ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)NVIDIA73%Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
NVIDIA
73%
73%
73¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
NVIDIA
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- NVIDIA
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $2K
Sponsored Products73%73%71¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 22s ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Sponsored Products73%Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Sponsored Products
73%
73%
71¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Sponsored Products
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sponsored Products
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $2K
Continuum64%64%64¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 22s ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)Continuum64%Kalshi 64%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Continuum
64%
64%
64¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Continuum
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Continuum
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $106
Third Party Seller55%55%47¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 22s ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Third Party Seller55%Kalshi 55%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Third Party Seller
55%
55%
47¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Third Party Seller
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Third Party Seller
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $2K
Iran / Middle East44%44%40¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 22s ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Iran / Middle East44%Kalshi 44%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Iran / Middle East
44%
44%
40¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Iran / Middle East
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iran / Middle East
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $569
Snowflake29%29%28¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 22s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Snowflake29%Kalshi 29%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Snowflake
29%
29%
28¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Snowflake
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Snowflake
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $312
Pinterest28%28%22¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 22s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Pinterest28%Kalshi 28%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Pinterest
28%
28%
22¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Pinterest
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $207
China25%25%16¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 22s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)China25%Kalshi 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
China
25%
25%
16¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
China
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $150
Drone22%22%14¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 22s ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Drone22%Kalshi 22%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Drone
22%
22%
14¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Drone
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drone
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $1K
Layoff / Job Cuts10%10%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 22s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Layoff / Job Cuts10%Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Layoff / Job Cuts
10%
10%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Layoff / Job Cuts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Layoff / Job Cuts
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $573
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Amazon.com, Inc. Investor Events
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Trainium
- Bedrock
- Tariff
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Amazon say during their next earnings call?". Trainium leads at 96%. Next is Bedrock at 95%. $52K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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