The Prediction Markets

What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in October 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

248 89%

Next is 256 at 72.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
248
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
248
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
256
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
256
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
264
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
264
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
240
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
240
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
272
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
272
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
232
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
232
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
280
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
280
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
224
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
224
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
288
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
288
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
216
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
216
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
296
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
296
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
208
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
208
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
200
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
200
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
304
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
304
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 248
  • 256
  • 264

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in October 2026?". 248 leads at 89%. Next is 256 at 72.5%. $56K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in October 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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