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ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
344 73.5%
Next is 352 at 71.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
34473.5%73.5%68¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 min ago79¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $127 (1.27x)34473.5%Polymarket 73.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
344
73.5%
73.5%
68¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
79¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
344
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 344
- Last price
- 73.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
35271.5%71.5%68¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 1 min ago75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)35271.5%Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
352
71.5%
71.5%
68¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
75¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
352
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 352
- Last price
- 71.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $8K
33633.5%33.5%31¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)33633.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
336
33.5%
33.5%
31¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
336
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 336
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $2K
36029.5%29.5%27¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min ago32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)36029.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
360
29.5%
29.5%
27¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
360
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 360
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $8K
32813.5%13.5%11¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)32813.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
328
13.5%
13.5%
11¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
328
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 328
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $4K
3688.1%8.1%6.1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)3688.1%Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
368
8.1%
8.1%
6.1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
368
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 368
- Last price
- 8.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
3207.5%7.5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)3207.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
320
7.5%
7.5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
320
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 320
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
3126.1%6.1%1.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $926 (9.26x)3126.1%Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
312
6.1%
6.1%
1.3¢ bid, 10.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $926 (9.26x)
312
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 312
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $926 (9.26x)
- Volume
- $4K
3764.4%4.4%1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)3764.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
376
4.4%
4.4%
1.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
376
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 376
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $575
3844.3%4.3%0.1¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)3844.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
384
4.3%
4.3%
0.1¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
384
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 384
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $853
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
3044.1%4.1%1¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)3044.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
304
4.1%
4.1%
1¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
304
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 304
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
2883.9%3.9%0.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)2883.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
288
3.9%
3.9%
0.1¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
288
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 288
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $2K
3923.4%3.4%0.1¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)3923.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
392
3.4%
3.4%
0.1¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
392
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 392
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $424
2963.3%3.3%1¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)2963.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
296
3.3%
3.3%
1¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
296
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 296
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $828
2800.6%0.6%— bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)2800.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
280
0.6%
0.6%
— bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
280
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 280
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $476
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 344
- 352
- 336
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Apple (AAPL) hit in October 2026?". 344 leads at 73.5%. Next is 352 at 71.5%. $51K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will Apple (AAPL) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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