The Prediction Markets

What will Applied Materials say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 10, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

China / Chinese 93%

Next is Supply Chain at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
China / Chinese
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Supply Chain
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supply Chain
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
EPIC Center
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
EPIC Center
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Hybrid Bonding
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hybrid Bonding
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Agent / Agentic
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agent / Agentic
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Chiplet
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chiplet
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Epitaxy
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epitaxy
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Broadcom
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Broadcom
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Kalshi
Singapore
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Singapore
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
SENZ
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
SENZ
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Smart Glasses
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smart Glasses
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
EssilorLuxottica
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
EssilorLuxottica
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Applied Materials, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • China / Chinese
  • Supply Chain
  • EPIC Center

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Applied Materials say during their next earnings call?". China / Chinese leads at 93%. Next is Supply Chain at 92%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 10, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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