The Prediction Markets

What will Applied Optoelectronics say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 3, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Qualification 90%

Next is Tariff at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Qualification
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qualification
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Kalshi
CPO / Co-Packaged Optics
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
CPO / Co-Packaged Optics
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Pearland
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pearland
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Kalshi
Indium Phosphide
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indium Phosphide
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Refund
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Refund
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Quantum
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quantum
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Mediacom
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mediacom
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Kalshi
Firmware
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Firmware
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
FCC / Federal Communications Commission
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
FCC / Federal Communications Commission
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Innolight
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Innolight
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Qualification
  • Tariff
  • China / Chinese

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Applied Optoelectronics say during their next earnings call?". Qualification leads at 90%. Next is Tariff at 85%. $3K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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