The Prediction Markets

What will be in the UK Budget?

Closes
Oct 29, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Fuel duty increase 20.5%

Next is CGT increase at 6.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Fuel duty increase
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fuel duty increase
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
CGT increase
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
CGT increase
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wealth tax
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wealth tax
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
Land value tax
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Land value tax
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fuel duty increase
  • CGT increase
  • Wealth tax

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will be in the UK Budget?". Fuel duty increase leads at 20.5%. Next is CGT increase at 6.6%. $18K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home. - Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty. - CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax. A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count. For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase. If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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