The Prediction Markets

What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Closed
May 19, 2026
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 158 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Remarkably Bright Creatures
92.9%
Polymarket 95%(92.9% fair)polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Remarkably Bright Creatures
Last price
95%
Fair, margin removed
92.9%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Swapped
4.9%
Polymarket 5%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swapped
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
Striking Distance
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Striking Distance
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Polymarket
The Proposal
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Proposal
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Polymarket
Apex
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apex
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
Black Phone 2
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Black Phone 2
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Polymarket
Jennifer's Body
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jennifer's Body
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Home
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Home
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Mother's Day
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mother's Day
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Pretty Woman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3809 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pretty Woman
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Remarkably Bright Creatures
  • Swapped
  • Striking Distance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?". Remarkably Bright Creatures last traded at 92.9%. Next is Swapped at 4.9%. $43K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 19, 2026.

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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