The Prediction Markets

What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

Closed
May 19, 2026
Traded
$83K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 158 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Worst Ex Ever: Season 2
55.6%
Polymarket 70.5%(55.6% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Worst Ex Ever: Season 2
Last price
70.5%
Fair, margin removed
55.6%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Legends: Season 1
15.4%
Polymarket 19.5%(15.4% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 36.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $276 (2.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Legends: Season 1
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
36.2¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$276 (2.76x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Polymarket
Man on Fire
11.1%
Polymarket 14.1%(11.1% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 26.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $373 (3.73x)
Polymarket
Contract
Man on Fire
Last price
14.1%
Fair, margin removed
11.1%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
26.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$373 (3.73x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Polymarket
Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano
3.9%
Polymarket 5%(3.9% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Nemesis
3.5%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.5% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nemesis
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Devil May Cry: Season 2
3.4%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.4% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Devil May Cry: Season 2
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Funny AF with Kevin Hart
2.3%
Polymarket 2.9%(2.3% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Funny AF with Kevin Hart
Last price
2.9%
Fair, margin removed
2.3%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Polymarket
Should I Marry A Murderer?
2.2%
Polymarket 2.8%(2.2% fair)polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Should I Marry A Murderer?
Last price
2.8%
Fair, margin removed
2.2%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
Lord of the Flies
1.4%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lord of the Flies
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
La Brea: Season 3
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3811 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Brea: Season 3
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 158 d ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Worst Ex Ever: Season 2
  • Legends: Season 1
  • Man on Fire

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?". Worst Ex Ever: Season 2 last traded at 55.6%. Next is Legends: Season 1 at 15.4%. $83K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 19, 2026.

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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