The Prediction Markets

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Closed
Apr 21, 2026
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 184 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Big Mistakes: Season 1
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4428 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Big Mistakes: Season 1
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Polymarket
BEEF: Season 2
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BEEF: Season 2
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crooks: Season 2
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Crooks: Season 2
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket
Ronaldinho: The One and Only
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ronaldinho: The One and Only
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sitting Bull
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sitting Bull
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$639
Trade this on Polymarket
Someone Has to Know
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Someone Has to Know
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Noah: Joy in the Trenches
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trust Me: The False Prophet
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trust Me: The False Prophet
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
XO, Kitty: Season 3
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4428 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
XO, Kitty: Season 3
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 184 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Big Mistakes: Season 1
  • America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1
  • BEEF: Season 2

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?". Big Mistakes: Season 1 last traded at 99.6%. Next is America: Our Defining Hours: Season 1 at 0.1%. $21K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 21, 2026.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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