The Prediction Markets

What will Bernie say during his rally in Duluth?

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

AI / Artificial Intelligence 88%

Next is Housing / Rent at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Housing / Rent
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Housing / Rent
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Billionaire (5+ times)
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire (5+ times)
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi
Climate
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climate
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Netanyahu
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Netanyahu
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Trump (5+ times)
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Social Security
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Security
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Trillionaire
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trillionaire
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Kalshi
Immigrant / Immigration
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immigrant / Immigration
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Socialist / Socialism
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Socialist / Socialism
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
ChatGPT / OpenAI
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Kalshi
Student Loan / Student Debt
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Student Loan / Student Debt
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • Housing / Rent
  • Corrupt / Corruption

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Bernie say during his rally in Duluth?". AI / Artificial Intelligence leads at 88%. Next is Housing / Rent at 86%. $3K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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