The Prediction Markets

What will Bernie say during his rally in Wisconsin?

Closes
Nov 8, 2026, in 16 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 min ago
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What the markets expect

Housing / Rent 76%

Next is Iran / Iranian at 72%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Housing / Rent
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Housing / Rent
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Minimum Wage
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minimum Wage
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Billionaire (5+ times)
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire (5+ times)
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Netanyahu
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Netanyahu
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Climate
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Climate
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robot / Robotic / Robotics
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Social Security
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Security
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Trillionaire
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trillionaire
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Kalshi
Immigrant / Immigration
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immigrant / Immigration
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Altman
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Altman
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Student Loan / Student Debt
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Student Loan / Student Debt
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Socialist / Socialism
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Socialist / Socialism
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
ChatGPT / OpenAI
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran / Mamdani
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran / Mamdani
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Housing / Rent
  • Iran / Iranian
  • Corrupt / Corruption

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Bernie say during his rally in Wisconsin?". Housing / Rent leads at 76%. Next is Iran / Iranian at 72%. $1K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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