The Prediction Markets

What will CarMax say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Mar 31, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Leverage 91%

Next is Conversion at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Leverage
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leverage
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Conversion
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conversion
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Shift into GEAR
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shift into GEAR
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Inventory (3+ times)
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inventory (3+ times)
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Logistics
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logistics
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Reconditioning (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reconditioning (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Affordability
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Affordability
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Loan Loss
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Loan Loss
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
GPU
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
GPU
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Interest Rate
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Interest Rate
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Acquisition Marketing
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Acquisition Marketing
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
MaxCare / Max Care
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
MaxCare / Max Care
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Buyback / Buy Back
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Buyback / Buy Back
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sierra
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sierra
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AI Agent
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI Agent
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CarMax Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Leverage
  • Conversion
  • Shift into GEAR

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will CarMax say during their next earnings call?". Leverage leads at 91%. Next is Conversion at 90%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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