The Prediction Markets

What will Carnival Cruise say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Dividend 80%

Next is Headwind at 80%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Dividend
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Holland America
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Holland America
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Modernization
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Modernization
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Dry Dock
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dry Dock
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Propel
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Propel
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Princess
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Princess
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Middle East
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Middle East
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Tailwind
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI / ChatGPT
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carnival Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dividend
  • Headwind
  • Holland America

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Carnival Cruise say during their next earnings call?". Dividend leads at 80%. Next is Headwind at 80%. $1K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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