The Prediction Markets

What will Carvana say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Acquired / Acquisition 92%

Next is ADESA at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Acquired / Acquisition
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Acquired / Acquisition
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
ADESA
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
ADESA
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Market Share
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Market Share
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Auction
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auction
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Kalshi
CARLI
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
CARLI
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Sebastian
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Title / Registration
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Title / Registration
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$431
Trade this on Kalshi
Ally
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ally
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Automation
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automation
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Insurance
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Insurance
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Middle East
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Middle East
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carvana Co. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Acquired / Acquisition
  • ADESA
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Carvana say during their next earnings call?". Acquired / Acquisition leads at 92%. Next is ADESA at 82%. $10K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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