The Prediction Markets

What will Chuck Schumer say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Trump (3+ times) 84%

Next is Iran / Iranian at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Billionaire
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Hegseth
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Bipartisan
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bipartisan
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Filibuster
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Filibuster
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Housing
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Housing
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Recession
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recession
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trump (3+ times)
  • Iran / Iranian
  • Corrupt / Corruption

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Chuck Schumer say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?". Trump (3+ times) leads at 84%. Next is Iran / Iranian at 77%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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