The Prediction Markets

What will Costco say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Dec 24, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Inflation 96%

Next is Membership at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Inflation
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Membership
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Membership
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$647
Trade this on Kalshi
Holiday
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Holiday
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Kirkland
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kirkland
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Renewal
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renewal
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Revenue
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Revenue
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$892
Trade this on Kalshi
Expansion
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Expansion
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Middle East
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Middle East
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Instacart
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Instacart
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
GLP-1 / GLP 1
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
GLP-1 / GLP 1
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Automated / Automation
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automated / Automation
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi
Uber / DoorDash
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uber / DoorDash
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Churro
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Churro
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Hot Dog
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hot Dog
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Valuation
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valuation
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Google / YouTube
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google / YouTube
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gold Bar
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gold Bar
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Buyback / Buy Back
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Buyback / Buy Back
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cannibalization
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cannibalization
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Costco Wholesale Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Inflation
  • Membership
  • Holiday

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Costco say during their next earnings call?". Inflation leads at 96%. Next is Membership at 96%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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