The Prediction Markets

What will Deere say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 23, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
25 min ago
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What the markets expect

Tariff 89.5%

Next is Headwind at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 25 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tariff
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Excavator
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Excavator
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Fertilizer
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fertilizer
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Tailwind
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Manufacturing
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufacturing
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Automation
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automation
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Dividend
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Repair
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Repair
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Warranty
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warranty
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Weather
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weather
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Middle East
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Middle East
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 25 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Deere & Company Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tariff
  • Headwind
  • Excavator

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Deere say during their next earnings call?". Tariff leads at 89.5%. Next is Headwind at 77%. $1K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 23, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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