The Prediction Markets

What will Disney say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 15, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Box Office 93%

Next is Churn / Churned at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Box Office
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Box Office
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Churn / Churned
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Churn / Churned
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Attendance
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Attendance
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Toy Story 5
86.5%
Kalshi 86.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$379
Trade this on Kalshi
Abu Dhabi
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abu Dhabi
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moana
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moana
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Buyback / Buy Back
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Buyback / Buy Back
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Grogu / Baby Yoda
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grogu / Baby Yoda
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Vertical Video / Vert
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vertical Video / Vert
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
NFL Network / RedZone
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFL Network / RedZone
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Epic Universe
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epic Universe
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Fortnite
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fortnite
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Walt Disney Company Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Box Office
  • Churn / Churned
  • Attendance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Disney say during their next earnings call?". Box Office leads at 93%. Next is Churn / Churned at 93%. $1K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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