The Prediction Markets

What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live?

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
17 h ago
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What the markets expect

Oil / Gas / Gasoline 83%

Next is Permit / Permitted / Permitting at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Permit / Permitted / Permitting
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Permit / Permitted / Permitting
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Mine / Mining
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mine / Mining
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$840
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Kalshi
Coal
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coal
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Venezuela / Venezuelan
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela / Venezuelan
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Lawsuit / Litigation / Lawfare
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawsuit / Litigation / Lawfare
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
California
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
California
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Rancher
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rancher
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Supply Chain
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supply Chain
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
SMR / Small Modular Reactor
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline
  • Permit / Permitted / Permitting
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live?". Oil / Gas / Gasoline leads at 83%. Next is Permit / Permitted / Permitting at 81%. $11K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets