The Prediction Markets

What will Eli Lilly say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Jan 27, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Foundayo 95%

Next is Jaypirca at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Foundayo
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foundayo
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaypirca
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaypirca
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
Alzheimer
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alzheimer
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$123
Trade this on Kalshi
Inluriyo
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inluriyo
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$644
Trade this on Kalshi
LillyDirect
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
LillyDirect
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Vial
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vial
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
ESMO
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
ESMO
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Omvoh
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Omvoh
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Tailwind
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
China (5+ times)
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
China (5+ times)
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Novo Nordisk
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Novo Nordisk
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Ventyx
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ventyx
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Eli Lilly and Company Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Foundayo
  • Jaypirca
  • Alzheimer

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Eli Lilly say during their next earnings call?". Foundayo leads at 95%. Next is Jaypirca at 90%. $3K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets