The Prediction Markets

What will Elon post this week? (October 19 - October 25)

Starts in 12 hKickoff
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Canyon 46%

Next is Rocket at 43.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Canyon
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canyon
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rocket
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rocket
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Legal
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Legal
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Flying Car
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flying Car
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
James Bond
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Bond
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Polymarket
Evel Knievel
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evel Knievel
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Canyon
  • Rocket
  • Legal

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Elon post this week? (October 19 - October 25)". Canyon leads at 46%. Next is Rocket at 43.5%. $1K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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