The Prediction Markets

What will FedEx say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Jan 26, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Dividend 90%

Next is Guidance at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Dividend
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dividend
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Guidance
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guidance
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
De Minimis
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
De Minimis
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Inventory
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inventory
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Tailwind
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Kalshi
E-commerce / Ecommerce
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
E-commerce / Ecommerce
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Kalshi
China
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Labor
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labor
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Automation
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automation
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
EV / Electric Vehicle
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
EV / Electric Vehicle
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
ServiceNow
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
ServiceNow
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FedEx Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dividend
  • Guidance
  • De Minimis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will FedEx say during their next earnings call?". Dividend leads at 90%. Next is Guidance at 89%. $2K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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