The Prediction Markets

What will gas hit by end of November?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

4.10 91.7%

Next is 4.05 at 85.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4.10
91.7%
Polymarket 91.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.10
Last price
91.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
83.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.05
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.05
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.95
81%
Polymarket 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.95
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.00
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.00
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.85
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.85
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
4.15
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.15
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.20
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.20
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.90
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.90
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.40
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.40
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.25
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.25
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
4.30
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.30
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.35
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.35
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.45
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.45
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gasprices.aaa.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.10
  • 4.05
  • 3.95

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will gas hit by end of November?". 4.10 leads at 91.7%. Next is 4.05 at 85.5%. $35K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified month, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets