The Prediction Markets

What will gas hit the week of October 19?

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

4.24 50%

Next is 4.30 at 39.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4.24
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.24
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.30
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.30
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
4.32
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.32
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.26
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.26
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
4.22
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.22
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.34
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.34
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.36
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.36
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.40
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.40
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
4.20
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.20
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
4.18
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.18
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
4.38
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.38
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
4.16
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.16
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gasprices.aaa.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.24
  • 4.30
  • 4.32

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will gas hit the week of October 19?". 4.24 leads at 50%. Next is 4.30 at 39.5%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the specified price for options marked ↓ (Low), for any date from Monday, October 19, 2026 through Sunday, October 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified week, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets