The Prediction Markets

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$2.1M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

4,500 49.5%

Next is 3,500 at 10%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4,500
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,500
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3,500
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,500
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,000
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,000
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,000
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,000
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,500
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,500
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$951
Trade this on Polymarket
6,000
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
6,000
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
7,000
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
7,000
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$192K
Trade this on Polymarket
8,000
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
8,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Polymarket
10,000
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
10,000
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
12,000
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
12,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Polymarket
15,000
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
15,000
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4,500
  • 3,500
  • 5,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?". 4,500 leads at 49.5%. Next is 3,500 at 10%. $2.1M has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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