The Prediction Markets

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$496K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 160 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4,500
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,500
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,400
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,400
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,800
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,800
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,300
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,300
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,850
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,850
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,900
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,900
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,200
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,200
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,000
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,000
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,100
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,100
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,100
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,100
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
5,200
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,200
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,300
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,300
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,400
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,400
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4,500
  • 4,400
  • 4,800

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?". 4,500 last traded at 74.5%. Next is 4,400 at 33.5%. $496K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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