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Best ask
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What the markets expect
4,000 81.5%
Next is 4,100 at 52%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
4,00081.5%81.5%79¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 16s ago84¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $119 (1.19x)4,00081.5%Polymarket 81.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
4,000
81.5%
81.5%
79¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
84¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
4,000
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,000
- Last price
- 81.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $28K
4,10052%52%46¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 16s ago58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)4,10052%Polymarket 52%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
4,100
52%
52%
46¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
4,100
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,100
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
3,90033.5%33.5%30¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 16s ago37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)3,90033.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
3,900
33.5%
33.5%
30¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
3,900
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3,900
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $37K
4,20021.3%21.3%18.3¢ bid, 24.2¢ askpolled, 16s ago24.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $413 (4.13x)4,20021.3%Polymarket 21.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
4,200
21.3%
21.3%
18.3¢ bid, 24.2¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
24.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $413 (4.13x)
4,200
21.3%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,200
- Last price
- 21.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 18.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $413 (4.13x)
- Volume
- $10K
3,8006.8%6.8%5.5¢ bid, 8.1¢ askpolled, 16s ago8.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)3,8006.8%Polymarket 6.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
3,800
6.8%
6.8%
5.5¢ bid, 8.1¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
8.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
3,800
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3,800
- Last price
- 6.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,235 (12.3x)
- Volume
- $49K
4,3005.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 16s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)4,3005.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
4,300
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
4,300
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,300
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $23K
3,7003.4%3.4%2.4¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, 16s ago4.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)3,7003.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
3,700
3.4%
3.4%
2.4¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
4.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
3,700
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3,700
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $26K
3,5002.4%2.4%0.1¢ bid, 4.6¢ askpolled, 16s ago4.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)3,5002.4%Polymarket 2.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
3,500
2.4%
2.4%
0.1¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
4.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
3,500
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3,500
- Last price
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $99
4,4001.9%1.9%1¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 16s ago2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)4,4001.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
4,400
1.9%
1.9%
1¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
4,400
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,400
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $27K
4,6000.8%0.8%0.5¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 16s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)4,6000.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,600
0.8%
0.8%
0.5¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
4,600
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,600
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $13K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
3,6000.6%0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 16s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)3,6000.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
3,600
0.6%
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
3,600
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3,600
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $18K
4,5000.6%0.6%0.4¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 16s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)4,5000.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
4,500
0.6%
0.6%
0.4¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
4,500
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,500
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $20K
4,8000.5%0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 16s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)4,8000.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4,800
0.5%
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4,800
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,800
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $21K
4,7000.4%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 16s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)4,7000.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4,700
0.4%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4,700
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,700
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $31K
4,9000.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 16s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)4,9000.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4,900
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4,900
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4,900
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $26K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4,000
- 4,100
- 3,900
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?". 4,000 leads at 81.5%. Next is 4,100 at 52%. $390K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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