The Prediction Markets

What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

15 37.4%

Next is 5 at 31.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

15 37.4%5 31.4%8 30.5%20 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
15
37.4%
Polymarket 41%(37.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
15
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
37.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5
31.4%
Polymarket 34.5%(31.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
5
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Polymarket
8
30.5%
Polymarket 33.5%(30.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: developers.openai.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 15
  • 5
  • 8

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will GPT Sol's output token price hit in 2026?". 15 leads at 37.4%. Next is 5 at 31.4%. $8K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model means the model with the highest GPT version number among models by OpenAI explicitly named Sol, such as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol, that have a standard output token price listed on OpenAI's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Standard” output token price on OpenAI’s official API pricing page, using the “Short context” rate where context-based pricing differs. Prices for batch, flex, fast mode, priority, long-context, cached, or regional and data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is OpenAI's latest GPT Sol model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be OpenAI's official API pricing page (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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