The Prediction Markets

What will Hailey Bieber say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Rhode 79%

Next is Skincare / Skin Care at 72%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Rhode
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rhode
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Skincare / Skin Care
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skincare / Skin Care
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Makeup
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Makeup
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
e.l.f. / Elf
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
e.l.f. / Elf
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Acquired / Acquisition
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Acquired / Acquisition
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Europe / European
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Europe / European
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Adanola
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adanola
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Billion
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billion
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Peptide
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peptide
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fragrance
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fragrance
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Highlight Milk
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Highlight Milk
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lip Tint
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lip Tint
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pocket Bronze
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pocket Bronze
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Skylrk
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Skylrk
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sephora
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sephora
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rhode
  • Skincare / Skin Care
  • Makeup

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Hailey Bieber say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Rhode leads at 79%. Next is Skincare / Skin Care at 72%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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