The Prediction Markets

What will Hakeem Jeffries say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?

Closes
Nov 23, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
17 h ago
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What the markets expect

Hegseth 95%

Next is Afford / Affordability / Affordable at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hegseth
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordability / Affordable
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordability / Affordable
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$185
Trade this on Kalshi
Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Kalshi
ICE
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Supreme Court
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$548
Trade this on Kalshi
Stock
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stock
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$538
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Socialist / Socialism
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Socialist / Socialism
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$926
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 17 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hegseth
  • Afford / Affordability / Affordable
  • Healthcare

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Hakeem Jeffries say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?". Hegseth leads at 95%. Next is Afford / Affordability / Affordable at 89%. $9K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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