The Prediction Markets

What will Home Depot say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 15, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Innovation 90%

Next is Mexico at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Innovation
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Innovation
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$671
Trade this on Kalshi
Weather
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Weather
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$179
Trade this on Kalshi
Lumber
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lumber
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi
Volatility
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volatility
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Revenue
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Revenue
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Synergy
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Synergy
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Tailwind
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Competition
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Competition
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shutdown / Shut Down
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shutdown / Shut Down
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
E-Commerce
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
E-Commerce
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Home Depot, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Innovation
  • Mexico
  • Tariff

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Home Depot say during their next earnings call?". Innovation leads at 90%. Next is Mexico at 87%. $2K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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