The Prediction Markets

What will Hung Cao say during his confirmation hearing?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 17 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

China / Chinese 93%

Next is Submarine at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
China / Chinese
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Submarine
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Submarine
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Shipbuilding
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shipbuilding
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Hegseth
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence / Super Intelligence
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence / Super Intelligence
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Drone
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drone
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden Fleet
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden Fleet
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Abraham Lincoln
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abraham Lincoln
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Korea / Korean
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Korea / Korean
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Taiwan
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Bahrain
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bahrain
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Anduril
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anduril
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Coast Guard
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coast Guard
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
COSCO
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
COSCO
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • China / Chinese
  • Submarine
  • Shipbuilding

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Hung Cao say during his confirmation hearing?". China / Chinese leads at 93%. Next is Submarine at 93%. $1K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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