The Prediction Markets

What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Winchester Model 1873 60.6%

Next is Colt Peacemaker at 15.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Winchester Model 1873 60.6%Colt Peacemaker 15.5%Winchester Model 1894 11.3%Colt M1911 9%M1 Garand 3.2%Remington Model 700 0.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Winchester Model 1873
60.6%
Polymarket 70.5%(60.6% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Winchester Model 1873
Last price
70.5%
Fair, margin removed
60.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colt Peacemaker
15.5%
Polymarket 18%(15.5% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colt Peacemaker
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Winchester Model 1894
11.3%
Polymarket 13.1%(11.3% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 24.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $413 (4.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Winchester Model 1894
Last price
13.1%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$413 (4.13x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Colt M1911
9%
Polymarket 10.5%(9% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colt M1911
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
M1 Garand
3.2%
Polymarket 3.8%(3.2% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
M1 Garand
Last price
3.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Remington Model 700
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Remington Model 700
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: sos.idaho.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Winchester Model 1873
  • Colt Peacemaker
  • Winchester Model 1894

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?". Winchester Model 1873 leads at 60.6%. Next is Colt Peacemaker at 15.5%. $11K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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