Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 4.25% 93%
Next is Above 3.50% at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 4.25%93%Not listed93%80¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 1 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 4.25%93%Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 4.25%
93%
Not listed
93%
80¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 4.25%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.25%
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $195
Above 3.50%90%Not listed90%20¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 3.50%90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min ago
Above 3.50%
90%
Not listed
90%
20¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 3.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.50%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- Volume
- $295
Above 3.75%90%Not listed90%75¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 3.75%90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min ago
Above 3.75%
90%
Not listed
90%
75¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 3.75%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.75%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above 3.25%89%Not listed89%20¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 3.25%89%Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min ago
Above 3.25%
89%
Not listed
89%
20¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 3.25%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.25%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- Volume
- $68
Above 4.00%89%Not listed89%5¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 4.00%89%Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.00%
89%
Not listed
89%
5¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.00%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.00%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $4K
5.00-5.49%72.4%72.4%70.4¢ bid, 74.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed74.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $134 (1.34x)5.00-5.49%72.4%Polymarket 72.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $134 (1.34x)
5.00-5.49%
72.4%
72.4%
70.4¢ bid, 74.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
74.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $134 (1.34x)
5.00-5.49%
72.4%
Polymarket 72.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $134 (1.34x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.00-5.49%
- Last price
- 72.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 74.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 70.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $134 (1.34x)
- Volume
- $29K
Above 5.00%22%Not listed22%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAbove 5.00%22%Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min ago
Above 5.00%
22%
Not listed
22%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Above 5.00%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.00%
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $7
Above 5.50%17%Not listed17%— bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 5.50%17%Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5.50%
17%
Not listed
17%
— bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5.50%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.50%
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $209
5.50-5.99%13.2%13.2%12¢ bid, 14.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed14.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $699 (6.99x)5.50-5.99%13.2%Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $699 (6.99x)
5.50-5.99%
13.2%
13.2%
12¢ bid, 14.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
14.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $699 (6.99x)
5.50-5.99%
13.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $699 (6.99x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50-5.99%
- Last price
- 13.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $699 (6.99x)
- Volume
- $21K
4.50-4.99%12.2%12.2%10.3¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)4.50-4.99%12.2%Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.50-4.99%
12.2%
12.2%
10.3¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
4.50-4.99%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.50-4.99%
- Last price
- 12.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $33K
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Above 4.50%5%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 1 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 4.50%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.50%
5%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.50%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.50%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $105
Above 4.75%5%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 1 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 4.75%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.75%
5%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.75%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.75%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $407
Above 5.25%5%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 1 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 5.25%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 5.25%
5%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 5.25%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.25%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $109
6.00-6.49%3.1%3.1%2.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)6.00-6.49%3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
6.00-6.49%
3.1%
3.1%
2.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
6.00-6.49%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.00-6.49%
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $14K
7.00%+2%2%0.7¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)7.00%+2%Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
7.00%+
2%
2%
0.7¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
7.00%+
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7.00%+
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $11K
4.00-4.49%0.5%0.5%0.3¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)4.00-4.49%0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4.00-4.49%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4.00-4.49%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.00-4.49%
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $19K
3.00%0.4%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)3.00%0.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
3.00%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
3.00%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.00%
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $10K
6.50-6.99%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)6.50-6.99%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.50-6.99%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.50-6.99%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.50-6.99%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $12K
3.50-3.99%0.2%0.2%— bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)3.50-3.99%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
3.50-3.99%
0.2%
0.2%
— bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
3.50-3.99%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.50-3.99%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $16K
3.00-3.49%0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)3.00-3.49%0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.00-3.49%
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.00-3.49%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.00-3.49%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $9K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 4.25%
- Above 3.50%
- Above 3.75%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.25% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will inflation in Brazil be in Dec 2026?". Above 4.25% leads at 93%. Next is Above 3.50% at 90%. $179K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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