Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Calpine 100%
Next is PJM at 100%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Calpine100%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askCalpine100%Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Calpine
100%
100%
99.9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Calpine
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Calpine
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
PJM100%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askPJM100%Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
PJM
100%
100%
99.9¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
PJM
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- PJM
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $234
Auction99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askAuction99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Auction
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Auction
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Auction
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $266
Crane99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askCrane99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Crane
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Crane
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Crane
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $51
Energy 10+ times99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askEnergy 10+ times99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Energy 10+ times
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Energy 10+ times
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Energy 10+ times
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Limerick99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askLimerick99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Limerick
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Limerick
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Limerick
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $153
Nuclear 20+ times99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askNuclear 20+ times99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Nuclear 20+ times
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Nuclear 20+ times
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nuclear 20+ times
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $95
Power 5+ times99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askPower 5+ times99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Power 5+ times
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Power 5+ times
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Power 5+ times
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $413
Trump99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 39s agoNot listedNo askTrump99.5%Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Trump
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
No ask
Trump
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 39s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- Trump
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $180
Golden Dome80%Not listed80%80¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 6 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Golden Dome80%Kalshi 80%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Golden Dome
80%
Not listed
80%
80¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Golden Dome
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden Dome
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $107
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
Moon Base78%Not listed78%74¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 6 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Moon Base78%Kalshi 78%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Moon Base
78%
Not listed
78%
74¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Moon Base
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moon Base
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $1
Goonhilly Earth Station68%Not listed68%64¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 6 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Goonhilly Earth Station68%Kalshi 68%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Goonhilly Earth Station
68%
Not listed
68%
64¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Goonhilly Earth Station
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Goonhilly Earth Station
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $426
SpaceX63%Not listed63%58¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 6 min ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)SpaceX63%Kalshi 63%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
SpaceX
63%
Not listed
63%
58¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
SpaceX
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SpaceX
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
Artemis IV56%Not listed56%52¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 6 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Artemis IV56%Kalshi 56%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Artemis IV
56%
Not listed
56%
52¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Artemis IV
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Artemis IV
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $174
Space Force47%Not listed47%39¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 6 min ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Space Force47%Kalshi 47%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Space Force
47%
Not listed
47%
39¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Space Force
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Space Force
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $34
Mars (3+ times)36%Not listed36%29¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 6 min ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Mars (3+ times)36%Kalshi 36%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Mars (3+ times)
36%
Not listed
36%
29¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Mars (3+ times)
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mars (3+ times)
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $95
Nuclear35%Not listed35%33¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 6 min ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Nuclear35%Kalshi 35%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Nuclear
35%
Not listed
35%
33¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Nuclear
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nuclear
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $126
AI / Artificial Intelligence27%Not listed27%26¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 6 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)AI / Artificial Intelligence27%Kalshi 27%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
27%
Not listed
27%
26¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $57
China / Chinese26%Not listed26%17¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 6 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)China / Chinese26%Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
China / Chinese
26%
Not listed
26%
17¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
China / Chinese
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China / Chinese
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $18
Artemis III24%Not listed24%22¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 6 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Artemis III24%Kalshi 24%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Artemis III
24%
Not listed
24%
22¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 6 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Artemis III
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Artemis III
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 6 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
No Qualifying Event-0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 39s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)No Qualifying Event-0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
No Qualifying Event-
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
No Qualifying Event-
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- No Qualifying Event-
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100
Uranium0.5%0.5%1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 39s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Uranium0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Uranium
0.5%
0.5%
1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 39s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Uranium
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Uranium
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Intuitive Machines, Inc. Investor Events
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Calpine
- PJM
- Auction
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Calpine for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Intuitive Machines say during their next earnings call?". Calpine leads at 100%. Next is PJM at 100%. $3K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 10, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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