The Prediction Markets

What will Jay Parikh say during GitHub Universe Keynote?

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Copilot 90%

Next is Open Source at 76%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Copilot
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Copilot
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Open Source
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Open Source
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Agent / Agentic
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agent / Agentic
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frontier
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frontier
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Visual Studio Code / VS Code
55.5%
Kalshi 55.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Visual Studio Code / VS Code
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Foundry
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foundry
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
MCP / Model Context Protocol
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
MCP / Model Context Protocol
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Codex / OpenAI
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Codex / OpenAI
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Claude / Anthropic
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Claude / Anthropic
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Memory
29.5%
Kalshi 29.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memory
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Cybersecurity
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cybersecurity
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
GitHub Advanced Security
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
GitHub Advanced Security
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Vibe Code / Vibe Coding
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vibe Code / Vibe Coding
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Microsoft Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Copilot
  • Open Source
  • Agent / Agentic

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Jay Parikh say during GitHub Universe Keynote?". Copilot leads at 90%. Next is Open Source at 76%. $4K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets