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What the markets expect
Democrat 94%
Next is Election at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Democrat94%94%89¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 1 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Democrat94%Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Democrat
94%
94%
89¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Democrat
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Democrat
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $210
Election90%90%84¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Election90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Election
90%
90%
84¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Election
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Election
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $188
Farm / Farmer90%90%73¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Farm / Farmer90%Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Farm / Farmer
90%
90%
73¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Farm / Farmer
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Farm / Farmer
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $59
Border88%88%85¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 1 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Border88%Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Border
88%
88%
85¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Border
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Border
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $407
Biden87%87%79¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 1 min ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Biden87%Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Biden
87%
87%
79¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Biden
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biden
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $201
Fraud85%85%67¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 1 min ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Fraud85%Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Fraud
85%
85%
67¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Fraud
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fraud
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $99
2028 / Campaign78%78%72¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 1 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)2028 / Campaign78%Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
2028 / Campaign
78%
78%
72¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
2028 / Campaign
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2028 / Campaign
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $315
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime76%76%69¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 min ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime76%Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime
76%
76%
69¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $46
Afford / Affordable / Affordability72%72%60¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Afford / Affordable / Affordability72%Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
72%
72%
60¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $29
Social Security69%69%51¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 1 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Social Security69%Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Social Security
69%
69%
51¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Social Security
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Social Security
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $164
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Manufacture / Manufacturing63%63%56¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 1 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Manufacture / Manufacturing63%Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Manufacture / Manufacturing
63%
63%
56¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Manufacture / Manufacturing
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Manufacture / Manufacturing
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $152
Economy / Economic61%61%50¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 1 min ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)Economy / Economic61%Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Economy / Economic
61%
61%
50¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Economy / Economic
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Economy / Economic
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $36
Fertilizer59%59%43¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Fertilizer59%Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Fertilizer
59%
59%
43¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Fertilizer
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fertilizer
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $17
Illegal Alien59%59%47¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min ago59¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Illegal Alien59%Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Illegal Alien
59%
59%
47¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
59¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Illegal Alien
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Illegal Alien
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $117
Working Class / Middle Class56%56%51¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Working Class / Middle Class56%Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Working Class / Middle Class
56%
56%
51¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Working Class / Middle Class
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Working Class / Middle Class
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $195
Inflation50%50%35¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 1 min ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Inflation50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Inflation
50%
50%
35¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Inflation
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Inflation
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $19
Oil / Gas / Gasoline43%43%33¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 min ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Oil / Gas / Gasoline43%Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
43%
43%
33¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $124
Steel43%43%30¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 1 min ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Steel43%Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Steel
43%
43%
30¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Steel
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steel
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $26
Small Business36%36%25¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 1 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Small Business36%Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Small Business
36%
36%
25¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Small Business
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Small Business
- Last price
- 36%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $246
Healthcare35%35%30¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 1 min ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Healthcare35%Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Healthcare
35%
35%
30¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Healthcare
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Healthcare
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $95
Radical Left34%34%24¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Radical Left34%Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Radical Left
34%
34%
24¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Radical Left
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Radical Left
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $269
American Dream30%30%24¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)American Dream30%Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
American Dream
30%
30%
24¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
American Dream
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- American Dream
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $1
China / Chinese24%24%24¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)China / Chinese24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
China / Chinese
24%
24%
24¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
China / Chinese
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China / Chinese
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $35
AI / Artificial Intelligence18%18%4¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 1 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)AI / Artificial Intelligence18%Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
18%
18%
4¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $50
America First17.5%17.5%12¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 1 min ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)America First17.5%Kalshi 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
America First
17.5%
17.5%
12¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
America First
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- America First
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Tariff15%15%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Tariff15%Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Tariff
15%
15%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Tariff
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tariff
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $64
Made in America / American Made7%7%5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Made in America / American Made7%Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Made in America / American Made
7%
7%
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Made in America / American Made
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Made in America / American Made
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $32
Event does not qualify1%1%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Event does not qualify1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Event does not qualify
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Event does not qualify
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $22
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Democrat
- Election
- Farm / Farmer
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?". Democrat leads at 94%. Next is Election at 90%. $3K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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