The Prediction Markets

What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$15K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Biden 75%

Next is Democrat at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Biden
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Economy / Economic
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Economy / Economic
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Manufacture / Manufacturing
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufacture / Manufacturing
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Working Class / Middle Class
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Working Class / Middle Class
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
2028 / Campaign
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
2028 / Campaign
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Inflation
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$575
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Biden
  • Democrat
  • Economy / Economic

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Biden leads at 75%. Next is Democrat at 75%. $15K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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