The Prediction Markets

What will Jim Himes say during Face the Nation?

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

China / Chinese 84.5%

Next is Trump at 71.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
China / Chinese
84.5%
Kalshi 84.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
71.5%
Kalshi 71.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Russian
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Election
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Kalshi
Putin
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Putin
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Cyber / Cybersecurity / Cyberattack
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cyber / Cybersecurity / Cyberattack
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Ukraine / Ukrainian
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanction
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanction
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • China / Chinese
  • Trump
  • Republican

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Jim Himes say during Face the Nation?". China / Chinese leads at 84.5%. Next is Trump at 71.5%. $1K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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